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[Introduction] : Recently, the price difference between oil and coal high-pressure products in southwest China is obvious, the price difference is 300-400 yuan/ton;  And the oil and coal linear price gap narrowed, basically no price gap.  With the increase of the price difference, the market share of regional enterprises has also changed. What changes have taken place in the market share of polyethylene varieties?

In 2022, the high pressure price in southwest China shows a “W” trend. Recently, the price has fallen significantly. The low price is 10250 yuan/ton, which is about 18% lower than the high price this year.  The high pressure film raw materials in the southwest market are mainly CNPC and Shenhua high pressure. With the widening of the oil and coal high pressure price gap, the market share has also changed.

March is the high-pressure production month of Zhejiang Petrochemical. The high-pressure production capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical is 400,000 tons/year, which has a certain impact on the market price. In order to stabilize the market share, the price of Shenhua Group drops significantly.  June and July, shows wide linear and high prices decline, the trend of recent public health events of fermentation, such as weak downstream demand order than in previous years, in the afternoon bearish case, coal enterprises in high pressure more low price to booking is given priority to, and the price of crude oil remains at about $100 a barrel, oil cost system supported by oil pressure difference between coal,  At 300-400 yuan/ton.  From this point of view, with the obvious oil and coal high pressure price difference, the high pressure market shares in southwest China are mainly Shenhua Xinjiang and Shenhua Yulin.

Since June, the price has fallen significantly. Up to now, the linear low is 7850 yuan/ton, which is about 13% lower than the high. The linear decline in June is similar to that in Figure 1.  From the point of view of the oil and coal line price difference, the oil and coal line price difference has been around 50-100 yuan/ton, into July, the oil and coal price difference narrowed, the price difference is not.  Linear downstream enterprises in the southwest market are mainly packaging film, plastic film season is mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter and the first quarter, the recent demand is not strong support.  In terms of supply, with the operation of Yulin Chemical and Tarim Petrochemical, the oil-based linear resources in southwest China have increased significantly, and the market share of the oil-based linear has gradually expanded, while the coal-based linear has no price advantage recently, and the market share has decreased significantly.

The low pressure market in southwest China is mainly based on oil production. The low pressure film price is high and strong, and the high price is 10,000 yuan/ton.  Followed by low-pressure wire drawing and low-pressure pipe, the highest price is 9750 yuan/ton, 9600 yuan/ton;  Low pressure hollow and low pressure injection molding prices are relatively low, the highest in the year are 9400 yuan/ton, 8800 yuan/ton.  In June, the low demand season combined with the influence of high temperature weather, in addition to the rigid demand support of low pressure film, other low pressure varieties showed a different range of decline. The low price is low pressure hollow, injection molding, pipe, the price is about 8300-8400 yuan/ton.

According to the varieties, the market of low-pressure pipes is mainly CNPC 100N and Tarim 23050, and the raw materials of low-price and high-price pipes in the market are all products of CNPC enterprises.  Recently, the downstream pipe enterprises are in high temperature and the rainy season, and the pipe price plus freight of Yan ‘an Neng Chemical and China-Korea Petrochemical is higher than that of the pipe price in the southwest market, so the market share of low-pressure pipe is mainly dominated by petrochina enterprises.

Low pressure film, with the import price of the high import volume reduction, the southwest market import low pressure demand also plummeted.  At present, the price of low-pressure film Lotte 7000F is about 9000 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises mostly produce with mixed addition of imported and domestic products. As the import price goes up, the adding proportion will also decrease, and the demand for domestic low-pressure film will increase.  At present, Dushanzi 6095H and Daqing Petrochemical 6097 are the main low-pressure films, and Chuanhua 9453 and Xibur 10500 are the main low-pressure films. From the perspective of the overall low-pressure film market, it is still the main position of the market occupied by petrochina enterprises.

In terms of low pressure wire drawing, low pressure hollow and low pressure injection molding, low pressure wire drawing has less demand in southwest China. At present, it is mainly dominated by Lanhua 5000S allocated by petrochina, which has sufficient supply and slow digestion.  In terms of low-pressure hollow, Dushanzi Petrochemical and China-Korea Petrochemical 5502, Dushanzi Petrochemical supply stable price is relatively low, oil occupies a large market share in the low-pressure hollow market;  The low pressure injection molding products are mostly 8008T of Dushanzi Petrochemical and Tarim Petrochemical, followed by injection molding products of coal manufacturing enterprises.

In conclusion, in the southwest market, in addition to high pressure coal production, the market shares of low pressure and linear products are all CNPC enterprises.  Among them, Yulin Chemical and Talimu Petrochemical are both light hydrocarbon devices. The cost advantage of producing polyethylene from shale gas is no less than that of producing olefin from coal. It is expected that the market share of coal-to-polyethylene in southwest China will not increase in the second half of the year.