Lead: In 2022, PVC manufacturers of different raw materials mostly maintained high load production, mainly driven by good profit of alkali. However, in terms of profit per ton of PVC, the profit of manufacturers of imported raw materials was in the red for most of the year. Entering December, with the upstream raw materials in different degrees of decline, superposition PVC price shock rise, corporate profitability improved.
In 2022, PVC manufacturers of different raw materials mostly maintained high load production, mainly driven by good alkali profit. However, in terms of profit per ton of PVC, the profit of manufacturers of imported raw materials was in the red for most of the year. Entering December, with the upstream raw materials in different degrees of decline, superposition PVC price shock rise, corporate profitability improved. However, December is the off-season of downstream production, so orders are not followed up enough, downstream orders are received cautiously, and raw material procurement is limited. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, can the profits of subsequent production enterprises continue to improve?
In December, the cost of different production sources decreased to varying degrees compared with that in November, but the domestic PVC price showed a slight upward trend due to the combined influence of macro-policy stimulus and export and other favorable factors. Therefore, the performance of the conversion to the profit end also improved to varying degrees, but they were still in the negative area. Among them, PVC production enterprises purchasing calcium carbide losses slightly larger. As of December 29, the average gross profit of outsourcing calcium carbide PVC production enterprises in December was -525.32 yuan/ton, 48.72% higher than the gross profit in November; The average gross profit of self-provided calcium carbide PVC production enterprises was -497.93 yuan/ton, up 12.20% from the gross profit in November.
Due to the different ways of obtaining ethylene raw materials, the production costs of ethylene process vary widely among enterprises, and the rise and fall of the profit end of enterprises are also different. As can be seen from the chart above, the overall profit level of enterprises that purchase vinyl chloride is poor, and they are in a state of loss for most of the year, while the profit of enterprises that supply ethylene by themselves is better. As of December 29, the average gross profit of outsourcing vinyl chloride PVC production enterprises in December was 46.10 yuan/ton, entering the situation of turning loss into profit, and the gross profit of November increased by 103.68%. The average gross profit of self-provided vinyl PVC production enterprises was 989.86 yuan/ton, up 99.16% from the gross profit in November.
In December, with the profit of PVC production enterprises being repaired to varying degrees, the overall start rate increased by about 6 percentage points compared with November. By the end of December, the start rate remained at 77.52%, 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
At present, there are few PVC maintenance enterprises, superimposed new production capacity, domestic supply pressure is still in, coupled with light terminal demand, procurement enthusiasm is not high. Entering January, the market supply is still expected to increase, and the demand is also in the traditional off-season. The orders of downstream products enterprises are low, and the willingness to stock up is low, so the domestic PVC supply and demand will continue to operate under pressure. In January, the domestic double-section destocking demand and the release of the delivery source of V2301 are considered, but considering the current cost pressure of enterprises, the room for decline may be limited. East China calcium carbide process Type 5 spot at 5900-6200 yuan/ton operation. In general, with the coming of the Spring Festival holiday in January, downstream factories will be closed one after another, and the profits of PVC production enterprises will hardly rise significantly.
Post time: Dec-30-2022