Introduction: This week, the fundamental supply of PVC slightly weakened, to maintain the weak supply, under the pressure of high cost and loss has not yet appeared PVC production enterprises large-scale parking situation, some high cost enterprises in the east of the load slightly picked up; Especially, the cost of ethylene process is low and the load is high. Domestic and foreign trade demand is still waiting to see, foreign trade orders slow down, domestic trade long-term off-season pressure. Prices continue to run weak.
This week, the PVC market decreased compared to last week, although the PVC enterprise overhaul slightly increased, but the overall inventory decline is still limited, supply continues to maintain high; In terms of downstream products, the product enterprises are running steadily, and the main building materials products enterprises such as pipe profiles are operating at a low level of 4-5 percent. External demand also maintained a light pattern, although the export market price down, but the signing volume is limited, India and other aspects of the price continues to look down. Both internal and external demand are showing a depressed trend. Overall, PVC supply and demand double weak phenomenon continues to continue, the price continues to run weak.
Supply side:
1. At present, the output and capacity utilization rate of domestic PVC device decreased slightly. After June 5, the enterprise planned to increase the scale of overhaul, coupled with low load of marginal high cost enterprises, the weekly output decreased to about 410,000 tons, and the later stage still maintained the high supply situation.
2. Enterprise inventory and social inventory are still high, much higher than the level of the same period last year, and the speed of destocking is slow.
Demand side:
1, domestic demand: this week PVC products enterprises started stable, there is no significant change. From the point of view of domestic PVC profile enterprises, profile enterprises maintain stable operation within the week, orders, delivery and so on lukewarm. In June, East China welcomed the rainy season, and the demand of building materials market slowed down. At present, the orders of domestic downstream products enterprises such as flooring and pipe profile enterprises were weak, falling below 4-50%. Other industries also decreased by 1-2 percent compared with April.
2. External demand: After the introduction of PVC safeguard policy in India, the export industry is negative. India’s certification standards for vinyl chloride residues greatly restrict the domestic export. In addition, the current expectation of foreign investors in the later stage is weak, and combined with the situation of declining outer plate, the departure price below $700 will appear, and the volume price will drop.
Three, domestic PVC market summary and forecast
PVC production enterprises to reduce the initial burden to alleviate bearish market sentiment, but supply pressure relief; However, the demand of the downstream far cycle is poor, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high; Calcium carbide and ethylene cost support strength is different, ethylene method incremental superimposed on the weak external disk is still bearish on the domestic market. East China spot is expected to 5550-5700 yuan/ton range, some low to 5500 yuan/ton.
Post time: May-29-2023