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Introduction: From the middle and late November, the bottom of the PVC market began to rebound, and the price rose about 200 yuan/ton in the latest week.With the rise of PVC prices, PVC enterprise profits have improved, but have not yet got rid of the situation of losses.Whether the price of PVC can continue to rise in the future, the key point is whether domestic demand can follow up. However, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the demand is unlikely to increase, so it is expected that the profits of enterprises will not improve greatly.

Raw calcium carbide: this week the enthusiasm of calcium carbide procurement increased significantly.As of December 17, Wuhai area mainstream trade price rose 100 yuan/ton, to 3700 yuan/ton.Downstream purchasing prices in Hebei, Shandong, Henan and other places have also been adjusted upward, and the enterprises are active in purchasing.With the rise of calcium carbide price, the production cost of PVC enterprises in East China increased by 200 yuan/ton.From the current supply and demand market, the short-term calcium carbide market is still in the stage of price rise.PVC calcium carbide process production costs will continue to increase.

In terms of vinyl chloride: this week, the supply of vinyl chloride in China is tight. Due to the strong price of PVC downstream, the price of vinyl chloride mainstream enterprises in East China rose by 200 yuan/ton to 5400-5550 yuan/ton.Meanwhile, external prices continued to rise this week, with CFR prices in the Far East rising to $650 / t and in Southeast Asia to $680 / t.Driven by the rise of the external market, it is expected that the price of domestic VCM will continue to rise next week, and the production cost of external VCM enterprises will continue to increase.

In terms of the profit of PVC enterprises, although the cost of PVC in calcium carbide method is higher than that in the previous period, the price of PVC is higher than that of calcium carbide, so the profit situation of this week is better than that of the last week.But outside mining calcium carbide law enterprises still more losses.The earnings of integrated enterprises have improved significantly.Ethylene method, due to VCM price rises faster, even if the PVC price rises, but VCM enterprise profits are few, ethylene integration enterprise profits, relatively considerable, and part of the integration of ethylene method enterprise pre-sale orders more, temporarily no pressure, high price operation.

Later, the cost pressure still exists, but whether profit can continue to improve, the key is domestic demand.At present, PVC products enterprises start stable and good, mainly to part of the production order enterprises.From the point of view of profile enterprises, the construction of enterprises in the northern region increased to the normal level;In the south, the operation remained stable and there was no obvious change.The whole industry, before the Spring Festival products enterprises more stable production to the holiday, no other arrangements.Profile enterprise raw materials, part of the bargain pre-received, still resistance to high prices, inventory cycle in 12-26 days.Product inventory: The inventory cycle ranges from 15 to 32 days, some of which are pending orders.Start aspect: maintain 4-6 more load.

Therefore, overall, the macro economy continues to support, although the cost is still increasing, but the downstream is affected by the rush orders, the performance is OK, the PVC market will maintain a strong trend in the short term, but the downstream is more resistant to the high price of PVC, and as the terminal holiday is approaching, the PVC market demand will gradually slow down, so the PVC price is difficult to have a big breakthrough.The profit of PVC enterprises will continue to maintain a loss phenomenon, and the profit and loss line of VCM enterprises will remain fluctuating.