Introduction: The recent global energy and macroeconomic environment performance is poor, domestic bulk product demand pressure, domestic demand slowdown, PVC market transaction confidence is not enough; The domestic PVC supply side is affected by the cost, logistics and other load slightly adjusted, the industrial supply and demand continue to be weak situation, but the long-term demand season and new production capacity pressure, the market price center of low trend remains unchanged, it is expected that under the support of the cost and start changes, the PVC market price in the recent weak performance after the stabilization and shock.
In 2022, the domestic PVC market showed a volatile downward trend, with the spot price at a five-year high in the first half of the year and falling to a five-year low in the second half. The highest point was 9400 yuan/ton at the beginning of April, and the current price is the lowest point at the end of the year. Due to the further contraction of demand in the later period, the middle and late fourth quarter may continue to hit the lowest point in the year.
In the first half of the year, under the influence of geopolitics, international crude oil rose strongly; PVC and floor products export support performance is strong; Under the policy of stabilizing economic growth, driven by the market atmosphere, the PVC market performed well, and the price was not much different from that of the same period last year. However, in June, the demand expectation was not fulfilled, the social inventory continued to accumulate, and the phenomenon of oversupply gradually expanded. At the same time, the expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States brought the domestic atmosphere to suppress. Prices Prices are going down. September – October also failed to show the “gold nine silver ten” wonderful, relative to August only 300 yuan/ton increase.
At present, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic PVC industry is 71.27%, down 2.45% year on year. The main reason is that the calcium carbide price began to decline in the middle and late October last year, the cost pressure eased and the construction started to increase. At present, the calcium carbide price continues to remain high, but the price of PVC is falling, and the cost pressure of PVC enterprises is gradually increasing, which leads to the low capacity utilization rate at present. In the later stage, some enterprises still have maintenance plans. At the same time, under the pressure of high cost, it cannot be ruled out that there will continue to be load reduction performance. In the short term, the construction level will remain low, while the supply will decline.
Downstream PVC products enterprises start to change little, there is only regional local adjustment. Profile enterprises, Xinjiang region is basically in a state of shutdown, the northern region to maintain last week’s load, south and central China’s current performance is fair. As for the whole industry, the policy to boost domestic demand is limited, the downstream industry is limited by the terminal limit, the order is difficult to pick up, the export of finished products by the European and American economic pressure, the late order is insufficient; Demand in Northeast China and Xinjiang weakened, while demand in northern China remained weak after November. According to the survey of Longzhong Information, in terms of raw materials of profile enterprises, it is the mainstream to take orders on low prices, and just needs a small single replenishment inventory. The inventory cycle ranges from 15 to 20 days. Product inventory: maintain medium to upper position, part of the shipment pressure is still in. Start: maintain 4 to 6 percent of the start load to ensure the delivery of orders.
The whole, domestic PVC market continued to perform as the oversupply, with the northern winter comes, and around the public health event caused by poor logistics transportation, to demand a significant improvement, PVC price weakness, new production plan in November, further undermining the industry confidence in the afternoon, the PVC market is expected to remain under pressure.
Post time: Nov-04-2022