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This week continued to be buoyed by the export market and the macro economy, PVC prices rose slightly. Domestic market fundamentals change little, PVC production enterprises supply continues to increase, but marginal enterprises affected by profit losses, continue to maintain a low level. The downstream construction continues to maintain a low level, but the purchase demand increases slightly. Some inquiries are intended to purchase pre-holiday or post-holiday inventory, and short-term wait-and-see is the main feature, with recently weak cost support and insufficient market cost support. In the short term, the market supply and demand pressure is still in the market price to maintain a weak look down.

1. In this cycle (December 1 to December 7, 2022), international oil prices have fallen. As of December 7, the price of WTI was $72.01 / BBL, down 10.60% from November 30. Brent traded at $77.17 a barrel, down 9.67% from Nov. 30.

2, Longzhong data show, as of December 8, the mainstream price of stone method PVC East China market 6100 yuan/ton, ethylene method PVC in 6250 yuan/ton;

3. In the last cycle, the domestic PVC social inventory was 249,700 tons, which decreased by 8.03% month-on-month and increased by 62.25% year-on-year;

4. This week, the pre-sale orders of PVC manufacturers increased month-on-month; Production enterprise inventories increased month on month.

Wednesday, next week’s market forecast

In terms of supply, considering that chlor-alkali enterprises are currently limited by liquid chlorine shipments, it is expected that PVC starts will increase in the later stage and supply will increase. At the same time, the current inventory of factory and social storage is still higher than the same period last year, and supply continues to be loose. In terms of demand, the demand in the north continues to decline, while the demand in the south is limited, the overall downstream construction is still low, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and there is no intention to stock. The boost from export markets will be limited. It is expected that the domestic PVC market will continue to run weakly next week.