Introduction: Recently, the hot PVC export market began to fade, the number of weekly orders signed by enterprises began to fall, and the enthusiasm of foreign investors to receive goods weakened. As the double section approaches, the fundamentals gradually dominate the market, the weakening of the external order to give domestic pressure, PVC prices will continue to be under pressure.
Export document reduction, subsequent delivery mainly
This week, the ratio of PVC production enterprises to export documents was reduced to 21,700 tons, a decrease of 64.6% from the previous month. The delivery volume of goods increased within the week, and some orders were actively delivered to complete the contract. At present, FOB Tianjin port offers prices in the range of $780-820 / ton, but it is difficult to get a deal if it is above $810 / ton. Foreign investors are not very receptive to the current price, and some of them are cautious about the arrival time in February.
The arrival of the traditional off-season, the late demand is reduced significantly
After entering January, downstream products enterprises will gradually enter the stage of holiday, and in this year, some enterprises are facing the problem of staff arrival brought about by the negative, in central China and North China this week, it is obvious. From the perspective of orders of downstream products enterprises, the total order volume of some enterprises decreased by 3-4 percent year-on-year, and some decreased by more than 5 percent. Orders in hand are generally poor. At the end of this month, enterprises began to shut down and have a holiday, and still maintain low construction, low raw material inventory and low product inventory.
With the release of supply and demand pressure, PVC prices will come under pressure again
Throughout 2022, the rise of domestic PVC is driven by expectations of the future market, and the fall comes from the pressure of supply and demand. At present, the supply is about to exceed the demand, and from the current market participants’ expectations of the price and the acceptability of the downstream, most of them are expected to be below 6000 yuan/ton. Therefore, under the background of large inventory, the market transaction atmosphere is restricted, and the overall PVC price is easy to fall but difficult to rise.
To sum up, the domestic PVC fundamental bearish state highlights, PVC lack of rigid support demand, PVC East China calcium carbide method 5 powder price will run between 6000-6200 yuan/ton in the short term.
In the medium term, the high PVC inventory will last until the Spring Festival. Based on the consideration of the destocking demand of the domestic double section and the release of the delivery source of V2301 in January, the spot of the Type 5 calcium carbide process in East China will run at 5900-6100 yuan/ton.
Post time: Dec-29-2022