At present, the global PVC price continues to decline. Due to the downturn in China’s real estate performance and the weak demand of PVC market, the rest of Asia has entered the off-season, especially India has entered the rainy season ahead of schedule, and the purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. The cumulative decline of the Asian market is more than 220 USD/ton. Due to the impact of interest rate hike, the mortgage rate of real estate loans in the US market increased, real estate activities slowed down, the pre-signed export orders were broken, and the prices in Asia and other regions were sharply reduced, which resulted in the price competitiveness of the US market. In this month, the export quotation fell by more than $600 / ton. Europe, despite its high costs, has seen its price focus fall in tandem with low external import prices and slowing regional demand.
The import and export data of domestic PVC in the first half of the year showed mediocre performance. From January to June 2022, China imported 143,400 tons of PVC, a year-on-year decrease of 16.23%; Cumulative exports reached 1,241,800 tons, up 12.69% year on year. PVC imports in July 2022 are estimated at 24,000 tons and exports are estimated at 100,000 tons. Domestic demand is sluggish, adding to the external export squeeze, import weakness has not improved.
Domestic PVC supply end in August no centralized maintenance enterprises, output is expected to maintain sufficient. On the demand side, the performance of domestic real estate is mediocre, with limited support for PVC demand. In addition, August is in the traditional low consumption season, and it is difficult for downstream construction to improve significantly. Overall, the situation of strong demand in the market in August will continue, but with the increasing loss of PVC enterprises, the decline space is limited.
Domestic PVC social stock is still a record high. Longzhong data statistics of East China, South China social storage inventory samples show that, as of July 24, the domestic PVC social inventory in 362,000 tons, reduced by 2.48% month-on-month, increased by 154.03%; Among them, 291,000 tons in East China decreased by 2.41% month on month and increased by 171.08% year on year; South China in 71,000 tons, a decrease of 2.74 percent, year-on-year increase of 102.86 percent.
In short, the domestic demand for PVC terminals has not improved, inventory continues to accumulate, oversupply in the case of PVC market prices fell under pressure. To the middle of the year, the market price has rebounded, the price of calcium carbide has risen slightly, and the market pessimism has been alleviated by the expected preference of the policy end. The upstream and the merchants have actively raised the price, but the downstream still has resistance to the high price. In the traditional off-season, the downstream orders are limited.
Post time: Aug-16-2022