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[Introduction] : In March, Chinese polyethylene import volume decreased by 18.12% year-on-year, month-on-month -1.09%; In the total amount in line with public expectations, and LDPE varieties rose 20.73%, increment significantly, beyond market expectations. In terms of exports, the year-on-year increase was 116.38%, and the growth rate accelerated again. But what will happen in April and May?

According to customs statistics: in March 2023 polyethylene imports in our country in 110072 tons, compared with 1.09%, the average import price of 1092.28 dollars/ton. Among them, HDPE imports in 427,000 tons, month-on-month -6.97%; The import volume of LLDPE was 398,900 tons, which was -6.67% compared with the previous month. LDPE imports 281,300 tons; Month-on-month +20.73%; The main reason is that the high pressure offer price in the United States and Saudi Arabia in the early period is low, the remaining import profit, plus the market is optimistic about the domestic demand in March, merchants are willing to take over, so the import volume of LDPE in March increased greatly.

According to customs statistics, the export volume of polyethylene in March 2023 was 109,100 tons, which was +39.96% month-on-month, and the average import price was $1368.18 / ton. By varieties, LDPE exports were 24,800 tons, +37.19% month-on-month; In terms of LLDPE, the main export destination is Southeast Asia, where the market demand is expected to improve, so the domestic export has a large growth rate, +52.15% month-on-month, and the export volume is 24,800 tons. HDPE, export volume in 59,500 tons, +67.73% month-on-month, the growth rate is the most obvious, and its contribution to China’s new production, in January and February domestic equipment production more, new HDPE device capacity in 1.1 million tons, the domestic HDPE market impact is larger, so there are more enterprises to consider export.

From the port inventory point of view, the inventory in April continuous decline, coupled with the market offer situation, compared with March reduced, is expected to import in April, limited rebound.

In terms of varieties, in LDPE, and due to the domestic packaging industry demand is still weak, coupled with sufficient resources, the market price fell by a large margin, as of April 21, such as Iran 2420E02 market trading price at about 8550, down 250 yuan/ton from the previous month. Later, the willingness of businesses to take over will be reduced, and from the perspective of import profits, import varieties in April, and LLDPE and HDPE is still in negative territory, LDPE profit is still there, but the recent trend continues to fall. LDPE imports are expected to decrease in April and May.

While the second quarter is in the off-season of China’s agricultural film, the demand for LLDPE is weakened, the import may decrease, while the export may increase. HDPE, the domestic new investment device operation is normal, coupled with the low price advantage of the product, the domestic price is in a depression, HDPE imports will continue to decrease, and exports are expected to rise. As a result, the import volume for April is expected to be 1.02 million tons and the export volume is expected to be 125,000 tons.