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In the fourth quarter, the domestic PVC market price fell after rising. Although October is in the traditional peak season of demand, the overall domestic construction still maintains a relatively high level, the supply side is loose, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the real estate building materials market demand orders are soft, the transaction is insufficient to follow up, the market pressure falls. In the international market, the Indian market was affected by the monsoon and Diwali Festival in October, and the demand was weak. The oversupply in the region combined with the arrival of the American supply, and the market price center was weakened. Entering November, the domestic PVC market price shock finishing, fluctuation range is basically near 100 yuan, although there is a small pull up during the period, but the field to see the majority, reflecting the downstream chase up intention is insufficient, basically maintain small single purchase, the overall turnover is light. In addition, foreign imports have been arriving in Hong Kong, aggravating the supply pressure in the domestic market, and the downstream products enterprises have insufficient orders forward, and the overall market lacks favorable support. In December, the market began to rebound from weakness, mainly boosted by macro-economic stimulus and export market. With the deregulation of epidemic prevention, the market is expected to improve and futures rebound. At the same time, the inventory in India is low and the shipment in the United States is difficult due to force majeure factors, so the export orders of domestic enterprises increased significantly. Drive up the market. However, due to the domestic demand has not improved significantly, so the PVC price rebound range is limited. Up to now, East China calcium carbide method type 5 price maintained at 6200-6300 yuan/ton.

Entering the first quarter of 2023, the domestic PVC market price is expected to fall after rising. The main reason is affected by the Spring Festival holiday. Due to the Chinese New Year in January today, after the New Year’s Day, downstream products enterprises will stop for a holiday, and after the release of the epidemic prevention policy, the factory is difficult to improve due to the “positive” workers, so the demand for PVC is limited. At the same time, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic PVC market is in a period of rising inventory. Under the pressure of high inventory, the price will fall. With the downstream gradually resuming work and production, the market began to enter the destocking stage. It is expected that the domestic PVC market will gradually improve in March. In terms of export market, the transportation problem in the United States has been solved, so the export competition pressure is increasing. However, the export orders of some enterprises in the fourth quarter have been pre-sold until February, so the overall pressure is not big. In March, the Indian market is still in the peak season of demand, so there is still a chance for export, but the price competition is still large because of the impact of the American supply. Overall, the PVC market will gradually improve in the first quarter of 2023, and it still needs to pay attention to the downstream orders and changes in the export market.