Introduction: The economic environment is complex at home and abroad, and the economic downward pressure is increasing in major economies around the world. The demand side of bulk commodities is likely to continue to weaken at present, which will restrain the price of bulk commodities and hedge the continuous disturbance of the supply side of many commodities. In the medium term, the price center of bulk commodities may still move down.
Strong domestic PVC market expectations or weakening gradually, from the LPR cut interest rates to the real estate mortgage policy easing, relegation from the terminal to verify the PVC industry terminal consumption, at present the domestic demand for PVC terminal is not yet in place, along with calcium carbide prices continued downward, double PVC under weak social inventory of supply and demand continues to increase, ultimately PVC supply and under pressure, Spot market turnover pressure increased significantly, in the short term is still difficult to improve.
PVC domestic demand weakened, exports are still strong. The export volume of PVC in May was 266,000 tons, down 4.45% from the previous month and up 23.03% year on year. Among them, 231,900 tons were exported to general trade, 113,300 tons to India, 25,500 tons to Vietnam and 16,900 tons to Turkey. The export data is good, and the reverse logic verifies that domestic PVC internal demand is low, and domestic merchants are blocked in transaction, so they turn to increase profits through export sales. As for the overall PVC social inventory in June, the upward trend continues, while the export may be weakening. For specific performance, we continue to pay attention to the specific PVC export data in June. Compared with imports, PVC imports in May were 22,100 tons, 19.93% less than the previous month and 6.25% more than the previous year. The decline in imports also confirms the contraction in domestic demand.
Off-season fatigue is different from previous years. Up to now, the domestic PVC social inventory continues to accumulate. The domestic PVC social inventory is 346,000 tons, increasing by 2.03% from the previous month and 147.67% from the previous year. The main reason for the weakening of internal and external demand is the Ming brand, PVC manufacturers have a large sales resistance, manufacturers’ inventory transfer to the social warehouse continues to increase, and the pressure of the quantity of goods on the way is highlighted. Terminal support strength is insufficient, demand recovery is still to be observed.
In short, domestic demand has not seen a significant improvement, the terminal downstream products enterprises due to poor terminal orders, the initiative to start work is not high. Although the demand is expected to improve with the decrease of rain in south China and the gradual recovery in east China, the short-term improvement is expected to be limited. If the policy and fundamentals have a sharp turn in the case of positive, do not rule out PVC bottom rebound after showing up.
Post time: Jun-28-2022