[Introduction] : With the arrival of December, the demand for plastic film gradually ends, and the demand for plastic film began to increase.
The overall capacity utilization rate of agricultural film was reduced. As can be seen from the figure, the utilization rate of shed film capacity showed a downward trend, with the week-on-week ratio of -1.41%, while the utilization rate of mulch film capacity increased gradually, with the week-on-week ratio of +2.33%. The demand for shed film slowed down, and some enterprises started a slight decline. While the start of mulch has been delayed, and the production of mulch bidding orders is mainly in northwest and southwest regions. Although the start of mulch has been increased, the increase speed is slow.
From the perspective of order volume, the weekly order volume of the sample enterprises of shed film was -6.66%, the demand for shed film slowed down, and the accumulation of orders decreased. The weekly order volume of sample mulch enterprises was +1.13%. Although the production of mulch is in the off-season and the market demand has not been fully started, some mulch enterprises have accumulated bidding orders and their orders have increased.
Recent raw material prices up and down, a small amount of membrane enterprises on demand to cover positions, just need to be based. Among them, the demand for shed film gradually decreased, and the stock of raw materials of shed film enterprises was -6.53% week on week. Mulch orders accumulated increased, the purchase of mulch enterprises began to increase, and the stock of raw materials of mulch enterprises was +5.27% on a week-on-week basis.
With the further weakening of the demand for shed film, the accumulation of orders is expected to reduce, the demand for raw materials will be relatively reduced, coupled with the recent raw material prices in a narrow range, enterprises are strongly bearish sentiment, more cautious on raw material procurement, raw material inventory is expected to decrease by about 8% month-on-month in December. In terms of raw materials, the cost support of various types of polyethylene will be weakened, and the imported supply is sufficient, so the inventory pressure at the supply side will increase. Coupled with the optimization of epidemic prevention policies in many places, the blockage of logistics transportation will be improved. While the downstream demand continues to be weak, enterprise orders are still not optimistic, the demand recovery is slow, so the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. To sum up, the price of polyethylene is expected to be weak in the later period. The demand for shed film is slowing down, and the start of mulch film is delayed. Film enterprises are more resistant to high price PE raw materials, and purchase on a low price. Raw materials are mainly needed, and the boost to raw materials is limited. (Personal opinion, for reference only)
Post time: Dec-10-2022