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[Introduction] : Up to now, the annual average price of metallocene polyethylene USD in 2022 is 1438 USD/ton, the highest price in history, with an increase of 0.66% compared with 2021. The recent metallocene polyethylene cost no support, economic and demand prospects are still worrying, the expected US dollar external wall shock weak trend.

In 2022, the price of metallocene polyethylene USD showed an inverted “V” trend, and the highest price in the year was Mitsui Petrochemical SP1520, the price was $1940 / ton. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side: the sharp rise of crude oil price has strong cost support, the shortage of upstream monomer production load has decreased, and POE profit has driven the production of foreign upstream devices to reduce the metallocene polyethylene. The above factors lead to the import volume of metallocene polyethylene in the first half of the year to continue the low level in 2021, and the supply shortage price has gone up all the way. In terms of demand, the second quarter entered the agricultural film off-season combined with the impact of public health events, the downstream orders restricted by logistics and transportation were not as good as in previous years, the price of general materials and metallocene polyethylene both fell, and the start of construction was about 20% lower than in previous years when the export and domestic demand were not as good as expected. In view of the above, the above are the reasons for the price surge and decline up to now in 2022. In the third quarter, as the installation load of upstream enterprises is stable and the mono problem is solved, upstream enterprises actively sell their inventory at a profit, and the price of USD drops significantly. In September 2022, the price of USD 1018MA drops to USD 1220 / ton. Upstream early to smooth, the fourth quarter of the US dollar price is expected to narrow fluctuations.

There are many factors that lead to the rise and fall of prices. We generally analyze from the combination of internal and external factors, including the international environment, national policies, production and economic situation. The macro factors affecting metallocene polyethylene in 2022 mainly include the following aspects.

International oil prices have raised the overall tone of the market, and the commodity market in 2022 from a bull market into a volatile market. With international oil prices peaking in March 2022, commodity markets entered a period of high and wide volatility. The average annual price of crude oil in 2022 will be $98.35 / BBL, 44.43% higher than that in 2021. With the opening of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the price of international crude oil rose widely, and the cost of metallocene polyethylene continued to move up. Among the imported foreign enterprises, the polyethylene production capacity of Mogin is mainly accounted for by ExxonMobil and Dow, with the production capacity of 3.2 million tons and 1.8 million tons respectively. From the perspective of ExxonMobil’s metallocene polyethylene plant, it is mainly divided into Singapore region and the United States region of the plant, while the import of China’s metallocene polyethylene mainly comes from Singapore region, and the upstream unit is the refinery integrated unit. Generally speaking, the wide rise of international crude oil and monomer shortage, supported the first quarter metallocene polyethylene of the US dollar outer plate price

According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.7% year-on-year, much lower than the growth rate of 16.4% in the same period in 2021. The internal driving force for the recovery of the consumer market is still insufficient, and weak expectations affect residents’ investment and consumption decisions. Combined with the downstream consumption of metallocene polyethylene, the downstream application of metallocene polyethylene is mainly divided into agricultural film, industrial packaging, food packaging, wood, infrastructure heating and other fields. From the data correlation analysis, agricultural film and food packaging data is relatively robust, which shed film and part of the necessary food packaging for rigid demand, if vegetables, food, meat packaging and so on. Beverage consumption has decreased significantly this year. Metallocene polyethylene is related to heat shrink film. Weakening export and domestic demand have affected the demand for heat shrink film. In general, metallocene polyethylene downstream related fields, agricultural film in the peak season is obvious, other areas are showing varying degrees of decline.

In 2022, the RMB exchange rate will depreciate by about 10%, and the USD/RMB exchange rate will break “7″ at the end of September. The continuous decline of the RMB exchange rate is mainly related to the adjustment of the US monetary policy. Influenced by the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the weakness of the euro, the US dollar index will continue to rise in 2022, bringing adjustment pressure to the RMB exchange rate. Of course, in addition to the decline of the RMB exchange rate, other non-dollar currencies are also depreciating, including the euro, which has lost more than 12% of its value. Since September, the exchange rate has fluctuated frequently. According to our research, agents rarely lock foreign exchange after September, and the depreciation of RMB exchange rate has increased the spot cost of agents intangibly. In the fourth quarter, the RMB exchange rate is likely to maintain two-way fluctuations in the fourth quarter. From the fundamental point of view, the slope of domestic economic recovery is slow, and the Fed’s forward guidance continues to be positive, the RMB will still face certain depreciation pressure.

In view of the above, metallocene polyethylene still maintains a high import dependency in 2022, at about 87%. Crude oil, exchange rate, demand are the main factors affecting market changes. Recently, crude oil and ethane prices have eased, domestic demand expectations have been raised in favor of small barrels, and the exchange rate has traded in a tight range. In the overall game of supply and demand, the cost has no favorable support for the time being, and the dollar external plate is expected to fall when the inventory of foreign enterprises accumulates.