news

1. Trend analysis of global polyethylene production capacity in 2018-2022

From 2018 to 2022, global polyethylene production capacity showed a sustained growth trend. Since 2018, the global polyethylene production capacity has entered a period of expansion, and the polyethylene production capacity has increased significantly. Among them, in 2021, the global polyethylene new production capacity increased by 8.26% compared with that in 2020. In 2022, the global polyethylene new production capacity is about 9.275 million tons. Due to the impact of global public health events, high polyethylene cost and the inertia of delay of new production facilities, some of the plants originally planned to start production in 2022 have been delayed to 2023, and the supply and demand pattern of the global polyethylene industry has begun to shift from tight supply balance to excess capacity.

2. Trend analysis of polyethylene production capacity in China from 2018 to 2022

From 2018 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of polyethylene production capacity increased by 14.6%, which increased from 18.73 million tons in 2018 to 32.31 million tons in 2022. Due to the current situation of high import dependency of polyethylene, import dependency always remained above 45% before 2020, and polyethylene entered a rapid expansion cycle during the three years from 2020 to 2022. More than 10 million tons of new production capacity. In 2020, the traditional oil production will be broken, and polyethylene will enter a new stage of diversified development. In the following two years, the growth rate of polyethylene production slowed down and the homogenization of general purpose products became serious. In terms of regions, the newly increased capacity in 2022 is mainly concentrated in East China. Although the newly increased capacity of 2.1 million tons in South China far exceeds that of East China, the capacity of South China is mostly put into production in December, which is still uncertain, including the capacity of 120 tons of petrochina, 600,000 tons of Hainan refining and Chemical, and a 300,000 tons EVA/LDPE co-production unit in Gulei. Production release is expected in 2023, with less impact in 2022. In recent years, local enterprises in East China put into production quickly and occupy the market rapidly, involving 400,000 tons of Lianyungang Petrochemical and 750,000 tons of Zhejiang Petrochemical.

3. Supply and demand balance forecast of China’s polyethylene market in 2023-2027

2023-2027 will still be the peak of polyethylene capacity expansion in China. According to Longzhong statistics, about 21.28 million tons of polyethylene is planned to be put into production in the next 5 years, and it is expected that China’s polyethylene capacity will reach 53.59 million tons in 2027. Considering the delay or grounding of the device, it is expected that China’s output will reach 39,586,900 tons in 2027. An increase of 55.87% from 2022. At that time, China’s self-sufficiency rate will be greatly improved, and the import source will be replaced to a large extent. But from the point of view of the current import structure, the import volume of special materials accounts for about 20% of the total import volume of polyethylene, and the supply gap of special materials will be relatively slow to make up the speed. From the perspective of region, it is still difficult to reverse the excess equipment in Northeast and northwest regions. Moreover, after the centralized operation of the equipment in South China, the output in South China will rank the second place in China in 2027, so the supply gap in South China will be significantly reduced.