In recent years, the domestic PVC market changes, the price rises and falls extreme market in 2021 in the plastic plate constantly with more prices to create the highest point in the product calendar, and 2022 has become empty allocation, the term of the two city prices plummeted. For the future price trend, let’s look at the following points:
In terms of supply, there will be new production capacity in 2023, including Shandong Xinfa 400,000 tons, Huayi Qinzhou 400,000 tons, Shaanxi Jintai 300,000-600,000 tons, Wanhua Chemical Fujian 400,000 tons, Zhejiang Zhenyang 300,000 tons, etc. If the new production capacity is put into operation, after all, it breaks the current market pattern, and the loose supply is bound to bring greater sales pressure to the PVC market. Therefore, the increase in supply and the release of new production capacity will put pressure on the price.
From the demand side: The emergence of extreme market not only tests the PVC single product and chlor-alkali industry, but also tests the endurance of downstream product enterprises. PVC products are mostly used in real estate. In 2022, the real estate data continue to perform poorly. Rather than encourage, and more inclined to guarantee the delivery of buildings, so real estate demand has a certain support.
From the point of view of emerging markets and exports: PVC emerging downstream markets, such as PVC flooring, PVC-O pipe, PVC medical products, PVC automotive products, etc., the demand may still increase. But in terms of exports, exports continue to decline under the circumstances, expected exports for domestic trade demand will be weakened.
From the listing expectation of caustic soda futures: in 2022, the primary consideration of chlor-alkali comprehensive profit cost capital to suppress the price, making PVC into empty allocation, especially in the second half of the year, the price of the two cities can not rise, the caustic soda price along the way, its single product profit was once as high as 2,600 yuan/ton, finally chlor-alkali enterprises in the continuous decline of PVC price showed a small profit. Therefore, the listing of caustic soda futures is expected to break the current chlor-alkali pattern.
From the perspective of economic policy: with the continuous release of epidemic policies, 2023 is expected to not become an obstacle to economic development, or return to the normal market environment before the epidemic, so we think there will be some positive expectations for 2023.
From the point of view of futures: at present, the PVC phase is very close linkage between the two cities, and PVC futures are moving towards a large variety of consideration, the annual highest position once as high as 940,000 hands, capital attention is higher, so the future is bound to be more changeable trend, the trend of disk funds should be treated with more caution.
To sum up, the future market development or appear more influencing factors, the price of the two cities will be more complex and diversified based on supply and demand level, 2023 China’s domestic PVC market wonderful is worth looking forward to.
Post time: Jan-07-2023